Ok, this is strange. When you check out the scans of the DCSS Powerpoint presentation posted at Atlanta Unfiltered, you get a whole new picture of enrollment projections than we have ever seen before. We at the blog have been tracking these numbers for about a year and have a chart of data that we update as we receive information. The chart is posted above. Our graphics person has set this up so that if you simply click on it, you will be taken to a large copy to view and/or print out. (Same goes for the attendance zone map below.)
Basically, we see a wide range of predictions, which is not usually a problem, except that the most recent predictions - obtained from the data on the Powerpoint, are the numbers the administration is basing its' decisions for school closings and consolidations. As a community, we need to ask our board for more research into this data and a presentation of solid, reliable data with citations from which to make these very important decisions. For example, the DCSS planning department projections dated July 23, 2009 (found at this link) show Avondale as under-enrolled by 650. Even adding in 300 DSA students, the school still would have 350 available seats. However, the Powerpoint figure says that Avondale is only under by 146 and will only be under by 48 in 2016. Further, Lakeside figures from the planning department's most recent projections show 268 over capacity. But the Powerpoint puts Lakeside at 350 over now, dropping to 23 under-enrolled by 2016. But the jaw-dropping prediction is for Southwest DeKalb - which the Powerpoint says is currently over capacity by 278 now but will drop to being under-enrolled by 657 in 2016! Get a cup of coffee and digest this chart for yourself.
UPDATE: Now that we have received the enrollment data used by the planning department in their Oct 23 presentation, we thought it was important to add their updated enrollment projection chart above. (At least for high schools.) The new data clearly shows that even with the planned additions, by 2016 Dunwoody will be over-crowded by 587 seats, Stone Mountain over by 223, Cedar Grove by 102, Lithonia by 125, Druid Hills by 190 Chamblee by 27 and surprisingly, Cross Keys will be over-crowded by 265 seats. The chart also includes the most recent October enrollment count, FYI. To download your own copies of these documents, click here for enrollment data and here for the powerpoint presentation .
Click maps below for a general overview of HS attendance zones (left) and school locations (right).